Power requirement: three drivers (2023)

Three main drivers of energy demand

technology

New technologies allow people to do more with fewer resources. The most successful technologies are often supported by government policies and business structures to achieve scale. Policies such as tax incentives can stimulate the development of new technologies, which must compete without subsidies to reach sufficient scale to affect global markets. Consumer preferences can also create a “pull effect” that increases demand for new technologies in the market.

policy

Clear and consistent government policy can encourage new technologies and influence consumer choices. For example, policies can encourage the adoption of new technologies (free parking for electric cars) or discourage the use of existing technologies (carbon energy restrictions). The implication is also true: policies that are not supported by competing technology or that are not aligned with consumer preferences may be difficult to implement. It is difficult to impose a product that consumers consider inferior to current options.

Consumer preferences

The demand for energy and products begins with consumer choice. These preferences are likely to change as new technologies offer better options, such as lower costs and lower emissions. Policies that reward choice can also change consumer preferences over time, such as carbon taxes that encourage the supply of low-emissions electricity.

• Global demand will reach around 660 billion British thermal units by 2050, an increase of around 15% compared to 2021, reflecting a growing population and growing prosperity.
• Residential and commercial primary energy demand will decline by about 15% by 2050 as efficiency gains offset the energy needs of a growing population.
• Electricity production is the largest sector and one of the fastest growing, mainly due to increasing access to reliable electricity in developing countries. Increased electrification is partially offset by increased efficiency in developed countries.
• The development of the industrial sector supports the construction of buildings and infrastructure, as well as the manufacture of products that meet people's needs.
• As economic growth increases demand for freight transport, so does commercial transport. Personal mobility options are also expanding, but improvements in efficiency and the rise of electric vehicles are offsetting increased vehicle range.
• Global energy consumption continues to shift proportionately towards developing economies, where population and economic growth is faster than the global average. By 2050, the share of non-OECD countries in global energy demand will be around 70%.
• Developing countries contribute more than 100% to the increase in global energy demand.
• Efficiency improvements in developed countries have outpaced economic growth, helping to offset increases in energy demand historically associated with economic expansion.
• The share of total energy consumption in the United States and Europe will decrease from about 30% in 2021 to about 20% in 2050.

• Renewable energy and nuclear energy are growing strongly, accounting for around 70% of incremental energy supply, to meet growing demand.
• Natural gas continued to grow during this period, reaching almost 30% of total demand.
  
• Commercial transportation and chemical feedstocks drive growing demand, with oil continuing to play a leading role.
• In some developing countries, coal use is still high. Its global share has fallen to less than 15% as China and developed countries have turned to low-emission energy sources such as renewable energy, nuclear power and natural gas.
• Electricity, an energy vector rather than an energy source, is growing at a rate about four times greater than total energy demand.

• It is important to understand how Outlook and scripts are developed and used. Learn more aboutHow we developed OutlookeHow we use scripts.
• The ILO Stated Policy Scenarios (STEPS) reflect current policy arrangements based on a sector-by-sector assessment of specific existing policies, as well as those announced by governments around the world. It provides a relevant comparison and contrast scenario with our perspectives, which also reflects current policy.
• The IPCC's 2°C scenario and the ILO's zero emissions scenario by 2050 aim for more stringent climate targets, in line with the Paris Agreement. There are several possible outcomes in the IPCC 2°C scenario, as many of the necessary technologies require innovation and policy support to accelerate development.
• Until 2050, current energy sources will still play a role in the global energy mix:
  • In most cases, coal use was reduced more than the prospective project.
  • Solar and wind must be built faster to adapt to scenarios
  • Biomass could play an important role in providing biofuels for transport and could even provide negative emissions if CO2 emissions₂Power plant exhaust gases can be captured and stored.

  • Oil and natural gas are the main contributors to the energy system.

  • Although nuclear power can now provide large-scale, low-emissions energy, few scenarios predict high growth.
• The IEA's 2050 emissions reduction pathway for NZE is more stringent than the IPCC's 2°C average scenario. Accelerates the development of low-carbon solutions while further reducing mineral resources.

Transport

By 2050, trade and commerce will increase energy consumption in transport by almost 25%. The movement of people and goods has increased dramatically in recent decades due to the enormous increase in personal purchasing power. Likewise, technological advances provide new and more efficient ways to travel.

Global transport demand is driven by different trends in commercial transport and light passenger vehicles. Commercial transportation is expected to increase as economic activity expands, especially in developing regions. Much of the growth comes from heavy trucks as a result of freight transport. Increased air travel also plays a role as individual purchasing power increases.

Passenger vehicle ownership and travel volume are expected to increase due to the rapid growth of the middle class and expanding urbanization. The fuel mix continues to evolve, with more alternatives emerging, including electric vehicles (battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids).

The hypothetical demand sensitivity for light vehicles suggests that if every new car sold by 2035 was an electric vehicle, demand for fluids would remain at approximately 2010 levels by 2050. Alternatively, a slowdown in improvements in the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engines could increase fuel demand by almost 3%. million barrels per day by 2050

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• From 2021 to 2050, global transport-related energy demand is expected to increase by more than 30%.
• As purchasing power increases, personal vehicle ownership continues to increase. Greater efficiency and more electric vehicles lead to a spike in light vehicle energy demand, followed by a decline in the mid-2020s.
• Energy demand for commercial transport (heavy trucks, aviation, maritime and rail transport) is driven by increased economic activity and individual purchasing power, thus leading to growth in trade in goods and services.
• Aviation demand will experience the highest CAGR of around 3.5% between 2021 and 2050, benefiting from increased economic activity and the rapid growth of the middle class, especially in emerging economies.
  

Personal mobility increases with income, leading to increased demand for cars and motorcycles.

• Motorcycles provide a lower entry point into personal mobility and motorcycle ownership is particularly high in the Asia-Pacific region.
• China and India lead the growth in the number of cars, with developing countries seeing the greatest growth.
• In developed countries, although the number of cars per 1,000 people is increasing, the relative demand for vehicle fuel will decrease by about 40% by 2050.
• In 2021, the global car fleet was approximately 1.2 billion, of which 16 million (1.3%) were plug-in hybrids, pure electric vehicles or fuel cell vehicles.
• By 2050, these advanced vehicles will increase to about 44% of the car population (920 million vehicles) and more than 50% of new car sales due to falling battery costs, political emissions, efficiency and reduced dependency. from countries that have to import oil. . In the short term, EV sales will increase from 6.4 million units in 2021 to 33 million units in 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of about 20%.
• Light vehicle demand for internal combustion engine (ICE) fuel is expected to peak in the mid-20th century, before declining to early 2000s levels by the 2050s.
• The reduction in fuel demand, although driven in part by electrification, is mainly related to efficiency gains across all types of vehicles.

• Accurately calculate CO emissions reductions₂Emissions achieved by using electric vehicles instead of internal combustion engines require a calculation of the emissions associated with the additional electricity required to drive the electric vehicle.
• This light vehicle sensitivity analysis helps assess potential impacts on demand for light fluids using alternative assumptions about EV penetration, changes in fuel efficiency or broader mobility trends.
• In Outlook, we predict that battery electric vehicles will represent 24% of all new car sales by 2035 and 36% by 2050. This sensitivity assumes 100% of pure electric vehicle sales from 2035, resulting in a global fleet of vehicles almost completely electrified. by 2035. 2050 (97% electric vehicles).
• This 100% electric fleet will reduce global oil demand (excluding biofuels) to levels close to 2010. CO₂Emissions are around 4% lower than forecasts as light CO2 emissions are reduced₂Emissions are partially offset by increased electricity production.
• The Outlook predicts that fuel efficiency will improve at about twice the rate seen between 2000 and 2021. If the rate of improvement is similar to historical levels, fuel demand could increase by almost 3 million barrels per day by 2050.

• Commercial transport is growing in all regions, with 80% of growth coming from developing countries, driven by population and GDP growth.
• While demand is increasing across all regions, Asia-Pacific is at the forefront and will account for more than 40% of commercial transport energy demand by 2050.
• Continued improvements in efficiency will reduce industry's energy needs, which have historically been associated with expanding economic activity.
• From 2021 to 2050, all modes of commercial transport will grow, with heavy transport growing the fastest and air transport growing the fastest.
• Electrification plays an important role in some applications, such as short-haul trucks and buses. It is less suitable for long-distance heavy transport, international shipping or aviation, which require greater energy storage to meet range requirements.
• Hydrogen is expected to enter commercial transportation as technology advances to reduce costs and policies evolve to support necessary infrastructure development.
• Among these industries, natural gas (onboard LNG) and biofuels (sustainable aviation fuel) are expected to occupy a larger share than electricity.

heavy landscaping

Strong demand for transport is driven by economic activity, resulting in increased movement of trade and goods across oceans, countries and cities. Industry fuel demand is affected by truck type and usage, so understanding fleet dynamics and fuel usage is important for predicting future demand. For example, a light commercial vehicle (LCV) used for intra-city deliveries has different energy needs than a heavy commercial vehicle (LCV) used to transport goods across the country. Truck fleets also vary by region.

• Fleet segmentation and truck usage are key to understanding the types of alternative fuels available for transportation.
• In 2015, long-haul HCV trucks represented about 15% of the fleet and used about 55% of the fuel used in heavy-duty long-haul trucks.

• The Outlook predicts that by 2050, due to falling battery costs and emissions reduction policies, plug-in hybrids, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will increase to around 44% of the car fleet (920 million vehicles). ) and more than 50% of new car sales, improving efficiency and reducing energy dependence in oil-importing countries.
• The need for energy-intensive fuels makes the electrification of commercial transportation more difficult. In the outlook, annual growth rates for electricity for transport between 2021 and 2050 are comparable to annual growth rates over a similar range in the IPCC 2°C scenario.
• Oil demand is lower in the IPCC scenario, reflecting assumptions about fuel switching and improvements in vehicle performance. Assuming underlying transport activity is similar to the outlook, average fuel efficiency in the IPCC 2°C scenario will improve by around 30% by 2050.
• Biofuels can play a key role, especially in harder-to-decarbonize sectors such as aviation and shipping, which will require a significant increase in biomass feedstock production and the conversion of refineries into biorefineries. By 2050, biofuels will represent 11-12% of total energy demand in transport, both in the prospective scenario and the average scenario below 2°C. Due to increased global demand for transport, this means that in the future the required demand for biofuels will be around four times the current demand for biofuels, compared to the IPCC average forecast of around three times the current demand for biofuels.
• Hydrogen-based fuels, such as hydrogen or ammonia, can also become part of large-scale hydrogen transport solutions.

residential and commercial buildings

As the population grows and prospers, more energy will be needed to power homes, offices, schools, shopping centers, hospitals and more. This sector also includes grocery stores, retail stores, sports facilities and cultural centers that require little energy.

Energy demand in buildings is expected to increase by around 15% by 2050. Driven by economic growth in developing countries, average global household electricity consumption will increase by around 75% between 2021 and 2050.

As modern devices, materials and advanced policies shape the future, energy efficiency plays an important role in limiting the growth of energy demand in the residential and commercial sectors.

• Growing prosperity and expanding business activities have led to an increase in energy demand of around 15%.
• The strong growth of the middle class in developing countries has increased energy demand by around 35%. Improving the performance of buildings could reduce energy demand in developed countries by around 15% by 2050.
• Globally, electricity demand will grow by 1.8% per year, to almost 50% of industry by 2050, as traditional demand for biomass, coal and oil declines

industrial

Almost half of global energy consumption is used by industrial activities

As the global middle class continues to grow, demand for durable goods, appliances and consumer goods will increase. Manufacturing these products and their components will require more industrial activity and more energy.

The industry continues to grow in emerging markets such as India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Industries in developed countries are also growing as companies and consumers try to reduce their impact on the environment through more efficient use of energy.

Industrial development requires energy. It also requires innovation. The Outlook predicts technological progress and an increasing shift to cleaner forms of energy, such as electricity and natural gas. The industries of the future will do more with less energy and fewer emissions than today.

The demand for industrial products has increased significantly in recent decades. Improvements in efficiency kept energy demand growing less than production and emissions per unit of primary energy used (excluding emissions related to electricity used) remained fairly stable.

This trend of increasing product demand is expected to continue as more people around the world join the middle class and gain access to products essential to modern life. Heading to the CO₂Emissions from industrial energy use will be fundamental. A shift to low-carbon fuels such as natural gas and hydrogen is critical, as is the increasing use of electrification and CCS.

• plasticIt is used in food preservation, medical supplies, cleaning products, electric vehicles and many household products.
• cementThere is a need to build dams (hydroelectric plants), energy-efficient buildings, etc.
• aluminumFor use in electrical networks, buildings and vehicles.
• steelUsed in large buildings, containers, trains and ships.

• The industrial sector supports approximately one billion jobs, feeds, clothes, shelters and improves the lives of people around the world.
• Population growth and prosperity create demand for modern cities, medical equipment, transportation and household appliances, supporting demand for steel, cement and chemicals.
• In 2021, the industrial sector consumed about half of the world's electricity, almost equal to the primary energy consumed by the transportation and residential/commercial sectors combined.
• Greater options for consumers to “reduce, reuse, recycle” and efforts by manufacturers to improve industrial processes and efficiency can save fuel and reduce emissions.
• Heavy industry (steel, cement, metals and manufacturing) and chemicals (plastics, fertilizers and other chemicals) are expected to account for almost all growth by 2050.

• The industry uses energy products as fuel and raw materials for chemicals, asphalt, lubricants, waxes and other specialized products.
• Even if primary energy demand increases by more than 10%, the shift to low-carbon fuels will reduce direct emissions from the industrial sector by around 25% in 2050, compared to 2021 levels.
• Oil, natural gas and electricity provide almost all the energy needed to replace coal and meet industrial energy growth by 2050.
• Oil is growing because it is highly suitable as a raw material; Companies are choosing natural gas and electricity for flexibility, convenience and lower direct emissions.
• Coal use is declining as countries and companies try to reduce their impact on the environment; it is expected to continue to play a role in steel and cement production.

• Heavy industry energy intensity measures the amount of energy used by heavy industry and manufacturing per dollar of total economic activity (GDP).
• Creating more value with less energy has positive economic and environmental consequences for companies and industrial countries.
• Developed countries have lower energy intensity due to their service-based economies and the dominance of high-value, energy-efficient industries.
• China's energy intensity has increased with investment in infrastructure and heavy industry, improving rapidly as the economy matures and becomes more efficient.
• Optimizing energy use through advances in technology, processes and logistics can help companies remain competitive and contribute to increasing global energy intensity.

• Chemicals are the building blocks of thousands of products that people rely on every day. By 2050, demand for fertilizers, cosmetics, textiles and plastics will increase as living standards improve and people will be able to buy more medical equipment, food, cars, computers and household goods.
• Chemical production continues to grow in the Asia-Pacific region to meet the needs of a growing middle class.
• Chemical producers in the United States and the Middle East are taking advantage of abundant and affordable energy sources (used as feedstock and fuel) to gain a competitive advantage.
• Europe, Russia, South Korea and Japan continue to be the main contributors to global chemical production.

• The chemical industry uses hydrocarbon products as raw materials and fuel.
• Naphtha and LNG are mainly used as feedstock; Natural gas is used both as a raw material (especially fertilizer) and as a fuel.
• The use of natural gas liquids will increase by about 40% between 2021 and 2050 as unconventional oil and gas production in the U.S. expands supply.
• Naphtha is expected to remain the main feedstock in Asia; The Middle East is expected to depend on liquids and natural gas.
• Advances in plastic materials and chemical processes can save energy as the industry continues to meet growing consumer demand for high-performance products.

• The transformation and decarbonization of production will be a challenge. It's huge and complex and requires enormous amounts of heat to create basic materials like cement and steel.
• Our projections indicate that additional efforts will be needed to further decarbonize industry in order to reduce emissions to levels in the IPCC 2°C scenario.
• The shift from coal to low-carbon fuels is an issue in the IPCC Outlook and 2°C scenarios. Natural gas and hydrogen are excellent candidates for reducing emissions from coal use.
• Electrification requires industrial processes that are suitable for use at even higher temperatures, and more research is needed into the materials used in equipment that can accommodate these new production technologies.
• Carbon capture and storage can provide scalable solutions for capturing emissions from energy use and processes such as cement production. Large industrial groups could benefit from the combination of sequestered CO2₂Flow to improve storage efficiency.

Electricity and power generation

Global electricity demand increases by more than 80%

Global electricity demand is expected to increase, mainly due to increased production of wind, solar, natural gas and nuclear energy. In addition to meeting residential, commercial and industrial demand, the development of electric vehicles in light transport is also leading to an increase in demand for electricity. The reduced cost of transport batteries is being leveraged for other applications, including large-scale electricity storage.

Today, batteries represent only a small part of the grid's installed capacity and are mainly used for short-term storage. Increases in wind and solar generation, driven by weather conditions, will trigger more transmission construction, more storage and more natural gas facilities that can provide quick backup to meet short-term demand spikes. To keep electricity reliable and affordable, the world will need new solutions that can be implemented on a commercial scale.

• Generation mixes vary by geography, depending on factors such as technology costs, domestic resource availability, and policy objectives (e.g., renewable energy portfolio standards for local generation).
• Much of the world continues to move toward low-emission generation sources driven by wind, solar, natural gas and nuclear energy, depending on local opportunities and policies.
• In 2021, coal-fired electricity production is the main source of electricity (about 45% in developing countries). Coal-fired power production in China is predicted to decline by more than a third by 2050, largely replaced by wind, nuclear, natural gas and solar power.
• The percentage of electricity use in transportation is expected to increase from current low levels as electric vehicle penetration increases due to cheaper batteries and emissions/fuel savings targets.

• Wind and solar generation will grow faster through 2050, supported by lower technology costs (especially solar) and policies to reduce CO2 emissions₂streaming.
• Natural gas is growing both within and outside developed countries, and the growth in these countries results from the transition from coal to natural gas. Forty percent of natural gas development in developing countries occurs in the gas-producing Middle East and Africa.
• Most new nuclear power plants are being built in China. Demand in developed countries is expected to decline as some countries phase out nuclear energy production.
• By 2050, the share of coal-fired electricity production will fall from 45% to 20% in developing countries and from 20% to 1% in developed countries, as countries around the world work to reduce emissions from coal production. coal electricity.
• Wind and solar energy are increasing around the world, but penetration by 2050 will vary depending on the quality of natural resources and the level of political support. Globally, the share of wind and solar energy in electricity production continues to increase, from 10% in 2021 to 40% in 2050.
• Wind and solar energy are expected to provide around 50% of electricity in Europe and North America by 2050, contributing to renewable energy policy objectives.
• The development of renewable energy sources in the Asia-Pacific region can contribute to improving local air quality and achieving energy security objectives.
• High penetration may incur additional costs to manage intermittent operation through flexible backup, transmission and storage expansion to ensure reliable power supply.

• Low-cost wind and solar energy, combined with efficient storage, could increase generation share to 50%. With a higher percentage of solar and wind energy, a reduction in the percentage of coal and natural gas would reduce global natural gas demand by about 60 billion cubic feet per day.
• By 2050, the decline in coal-fired electricity production will occur mainly in developed countries. Converting 50% of the remaining coal to natural gas would increase natural gas demand by about 14%.
• The Outlook team monitors technology, market and policy movements for signals that make certain outcomes more or less likely.

• Given the high degree of end-use electrification in the IPCC 2°C scenario by 2050, these scenarios require, on average, about twice as much energy to produce the required electricity.
• To reach the renewable energy levels predicted in the scenarios, solar and wind energy will have to grow faster. Over the next three decades, solar energy will grow at six times the recent historical rate, and wind energy will grow at about four times the recent historical rate. Taking into account available political support and underperforming and lower quality resource sectors, the Outlook assumes that solar and wind energy will grow at about double the rate of historical levels.
• In the IPCC scenario, by 2050, the contribution of nuclear energy to electricity production will be 35% higher than the level assumed in the Perspectives.
• The Outlook predicts that coal power production will decline by 30% in 2021; the IPCC scenario predicts a reduction of more than 80%.
• The role of natural gas will expand by almost 60% in the Outlook forecast. In the IPCC scenario, the reduction is 15%.