Global electricity demand in 2040 | Estasta (2023)

FAQs

What is the demand for electricity in 2040? ›

By 2040, it is expected that global electricity demand will reach around 35.3 petawatt hours.

EIA projects world energy consumption will increase 56% by 2040. Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2013.

Demand Growth: Energy demand between 2012 and 2040 is expected to grow by nearly half worldwide. EIA expects developed country demand will rise a not insignificant 18% while developing country demand jumps 71%, with Indian, Southeast Asian, and African demand more than doubling (see the nearby chart).

In the Stated Policies Scenario, nearly 8 500 GW of new power capacity is added globally by 2040, of which two-thirds is renewables.

In the Stated Policies Scenario, oil will be the largest energy source in 2040, making up about 28% of the global energy mix — and natural gas will be right behind it, for 25% of supply.

California needs three times more power capacity to reach 100% clean energy by 2045. An initial analysis suggests the goal is technically feasible but only with a sustained high pace of construction: 6 GW annually for the next 25 years.

Residential and commercial buildings

Buildings energy demand is projected to rise by around 15% through 2050. Led by the growing economies of developing nations, average worldwide household electricity use will rise about 75% between 2021 and 2050.

Global electricity demand is projected to grow between 62 and 185 percent by 2050 compared with 2021 levels. The share of fossil fuels in the electricity mix declines from 59 percent in 2021 to 2–55 percent by 2050, but in some Reference scenarios, the aggregate level of fossil fuels used for power generation grows.

In 2040, oil and natural gas will likely be nearly 60 percent of global supplies, while nuclear and renewables will be approaching a 25 percent share. We can expect that new technologies will continue to create new energy options for our growing world.

How much more electricity will we need in 2050? ›

EIA projects that worldwide electricity generation will grow by 1.8% per year through 2050. EIA projects that total world electricity generation will reach nearly 45 trillion kilowatthours (kWh) by 2050, almost 20 trillion kWh more than the 2018 level.

Growth in the world's population and economy, coupled with rapid urbanisation, will result in a substantial increase in energy demand over the coming years. The United Nations (UN) estimates that the world's population will grow from 7.8 billion in 2020 to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050.

Recent studies show that a global transition to 100% renewable energy across all sectors – power, heat, transport and desalination well before 2050 is feasible.

“By 2050, we could get all the energy we need from renewable sources. This report shows that such a transition is not only possible but also cost-effective, providing energy that is affordable for all and producing it in ways that can be sustained by the global economy and the planet.

Global demand reaches about 660 quadrillion Btu in 2050, up about 15% versus 2021, reflecting a growing population and rising prosperity. Residential and commercial primary energy demand declines by approximately 15% to 2050 as efficiency improvements offset the energy needs of a growing population.

Our projections of residential consumption of purchased electricity increase between about 14% and 22% from 2022 to 2050 across all cases, reaching between 5.9 quads and 6.3 quads.

EIA projects that total world electricity generation will reach nearly 45 trillion kilowatthours (kWh) by 2050, almost 20 trillion kWh more than the 2018 level.

The global growth rate for energy consumption is set to slow to slightly less than 2% in 2023, down from 2.3% in 2022, which was also down from the five-year pre-COVID 19 average of 2.4%. For 2024, the rate is expected to rise to 3.3%, as the economic outlook improves, the IEA data showed.